[15 Minute Read]

Dear fellow participants in God’s mission,

Grace and peace to you in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ.

Early in the COVID-19 spread, as Italy was showing us the full impact of the virus in community transmission mode, and New York was starting on a similar trajectory, I heard news of significant shifts in the decision-making policies of major foundations in the USA. Our colleague, Ted Esler (Missio Nexus) reported that grant applications were being put on hold and foundations were battening down the hatches (securing themselves) to ride out the economic storm ahead.

If funds that might otherwise be available for missions-oriented causes is lashed to something like the Dow Jones… and the Dow Jones starts to sink like a pirate down into ‘Davy Jones’ locker’… then funding for missions, development and other charitable causes sinks with it.

That Sinking Feeling

As soon as nations like the USA began restricting borders, the share market reacted with increasing unease. As the share market drops so does the funding available from foundations, because a very large amount of money donated for future charitable purposes is held in (share market) managed funds—at least it is in the USA. That makes complete sense in a stable economic environment where investments can be expected to appreciate. Not so much in times of uncertainty and volatility. If funds that might otherwise be available for missions-oriented causes is lashed to something like the Dow Jones (a stock market index) and the Dow Jones starts to sink like a pirate down into ‘Davy Jones’ locker’ (a sea-grave) then funding for missions, development and other charitable causes sinks with it.

As most fund managers will tell you, in times like these investors should just hold on while the wave troughs (bear market) and then ride it back up (bull market) before trading again or cashing out. Assuming your portfolio is diversified enough, it will rebound. But when the wave washes over and the market swells once more there will be many casualties left in the wake. Shares in organisations that sank will be worthless. Nevertheless, fund managers are confident in a rebound because it has happened before and they look to past crises to gauge future results. The 20^th Century Great Depression, World War II and subsequent wars, the oil crisis of the 1970s, the stock market crash of 1987, September 11 2001, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, were all major troughs which eventually swelled again as confidence in the markets grew due to fresh innovation and activity—eventually.

Lifebelt Tightening

In the meantime, austerity measures are put in place. In spite of some recent rallying in the markets, foundations will be wise to not touch money tied up in shares because their value has not rebounded completely, and the wave has not fully toughed yet. A recent spike in investor confidence was probably encouraged by government stimulus packages, but analysts think it will be short-lived as economic fallout continues. Cashing up now will incur unacceptable losses. When experiencing market displacement (like this crisis disruption), capital hibernates and awaits better weather. In times like these cash is crucial. Organisations (and individuals) must survive on what reserve liquidity they have. For most, a very real scarcity mentality is required to survive. All available funding is reserved for the livelihood of the foundation, company, government or household.

We are set to see devastation on a scale that is overwhelming to contemplate, let alone impotently watch unfold via our device screens.

Forecasting A Depression

By most accounts, the world is plummeting into this century’s Great Depression. As already mentioned, most industrially advanced nation’s governments have created stimulus packages to help fuel their economies and blunt the impact of the depression (having learned from previous crises), but nations will be concerned for looking after their own for a good while. Where funding was made available to help other nations develop via foreign government aid programmes, we can expect that funding to radically reduce. Post-World War II, a desire to create a more stable world saw large investment toward helping pre-industrial nations to develop. This is not the place to explore the very complex motivations and strategies behind international aid and development. Suffice it to say, on balance it had a certain desired effect of lifting many people out of poverty. Specialists in the relief and development sector are rightly claiming that all of those gains are about to be lost as the pandemic shuts down industrialised nations and sweeps through developing ones. We are set to see devastation on a scale that is overwhelming to contemplate, let alone impotently watch unfold via our device screens.

In a previous post, I mentioned that one of my base assumptions is that missions follows commerce. Another assumption I have developed, as a student of missions history and after decades of mobilising for missions and leading a people-deploying missions agency, is that trans-border missions tends to be the privilege of the middle class. ‘Middle class’ is open to wide ranging definition, but we can assume it includes people who are educated, gainfully employed, and have some degree of discretionary income after expenses. In contrast, the poor live a subsistence lifestyle that inhibits them from ministering very far beyond their residence; and, while the rich own capital and have a much larger discretionary income (evident by their acquisitions and investments), which can hinder them from considering personal long-term trans-border relocation for ministry.

The financial fuel that has ignited the engine of trans-border missions could well be about to run out.

The Disappearing Middle

I admit, these are broad sweeping generalisations, but for some time now social commentators have been lamenting the disappearance of the middle classes in industrialised nations. This crisis will further impact middle income earners. We have been watching an income gap widen between the haves and have nots. While poverty may have been alleviated for some (according to certain metrics), the distance between them and the so-called “1 percenters” has grown exponentially wider. When I map a nation with a diminishing middle class against diminishing trans-border missions interest there, I find curiously strong correlations. Conversely, if we consider the increase of trans-border missions interest and involvement from new sending nations (since the 1990s) we can see a correlation again as those nations’ middle classes were strengthening.

My point is that an individual (or family) is able to pursue a trans-border missions call largely because they have access to a network of people with discretionary income able and willing to donate to the cause of another beyond their own needs. As economic depression (or at least further recession) hits, investments fail, and jobs disappear, so too does the discretionary income. The financial fuel that has ignited the engine of trans-border missions could well be about to run out. If so, the classic donation-funded model of trans-border missions that has held sway for around 220 years will grind to a halt.

I believe Christ-followers with a call to cross-cultural missions will find other ways to fulfil their calling. Trans-border missions is not the only way to engage in cross-cultural ministry or other missions activities and in future blogs we will imagine possible scenarios as we continue thinking about “Our Missions Future” (the title of the next Mission Commission Global Consultation). Throughout this COVID-19 Implication series, concerns of internationally deployed missions workers will continue to influence my research, analysis and subsequent commentary. I will explore the personal impact of our current crisis on expatriate cross-cultural ministers of the gospel in my next post. The disorientation caused by this crisis on missionaries and sending-organisations is dizzying. For them, ‘pivoting’ may not be possible. A total reorientation will be required if they are to continue pursuing their God-given purposes.

“COVID-19 is teaching us that the more dependent you are, the more you are going to suffer'” Raghu Balachandran.

Suffering Dependents

Another significant concern to us in this moment should be the welfare of those who have been dependent on donation and foundation funding from the industrialised world to carry out indigenous ministries and developmental projects in nations where poverty is the norm. I am exploring ‘indigenous missions’ as a particular interest when it comes to considering the future of missions. Sadly, all indicators suggest that the withdrawal (or at least a constraining) of offshore financial support for such people and projects will contribute to a tragedy of cataclysmic proportions.

In the transformational development sector, it is quite fashionable to work with impoverished communities using an asset-based approach. That is, to coach change-makers to consider what they have available, within their community, that can provide a solution to communal problems without the need for outside resourcing. Focusing on a community’s strengths is a wonderful and admirable strategy that has many beneficial side effects on top of the outcomes the community can achieve. In many situations it can work well.

This sat in the back of my mind during Zoom meetings I attended alongside other global Christian leaders discussing the developing economic crisis for impoverished nations. In one session I asked Raghu Balachandran of the Sri Lankan Evangelical Alliance what the single greatest hindrance to asset-based solutions would be within the communities he is working with. Without hesitation he answered, “crippling national debt” (86.8% of GDP for Sri Lanka). He went on to say, “COVID-19 is teaching us that the more dependent you are, the more you are going to suffer”.

I currently believe that the most effective way to help impoverished nations help themselves in the days ahead when external funding is hindered (whether temporary or permanently), is to lobby for some form debt relief—better yet, forgiveness across the board. Yes, there are economic complexities and internal reasons why this debt has accumulated and is unable to be paid back. Yes, they have a responsibility to their investors. But every investment carries risk, and impoverished nations defaulting on their loans will turn that risk into a reality anyway. In a global crisis such as we are experiencing, the economically privileged will need to make significant sacrifices to avert a catastrophic human tragedy and a gross miscarriage of (Biblical) justice. This is a responsibility of privilege.

In light of all the restriction coming, how then shall we live? Well, dear friends and followers of Jesus the Christ, whatever our interest in God’s mission, let us be leaders in generosity. Let us not just consider our own interests but also the interests of others (Philippians 2:4).

Pray

• That Jehovah Jireh, the Lord who provides, will show Himself faithful to all those who trust in Him. Now is the time for us all to lean heavily on the faith we profess.
• For the Spirit of God to move in the hearts of wealthy Jesus-followers to release funding. May they not be constrained by the thought of losses, but by compassion for those in need, especially those labouring for God’s mission and dependent on God to move through God’s people for God’s supply.
• For the indigenous ministers in impoverished nations seeking to help their community through the greatest crisis of our lifetime. Pray for a Spirit of creativity to be released and for innovative local solutions to be found that will stun the industrialised world—solutions focused on the wellbeing of people before profit.